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Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis
for Dow Jones Industrial Average
Look at the Dow on the semi-log yearly chart below, the 1929 stock
market crush is treated as the super-wave (IV) correction. Commencing from 1932 at the index low
of 386, Dow emerged into a super impulse wave (V). Super wave (V) is unfolding in five cyclical wave: cyclical wave I brought the Dow from 1932 low to 1937
high, corrective wave II
was the result of the pre-World War II recession, bringing the Dow to the
1942 low; in anticipation of the end of the World War II, the Dow entered
into a long term impulse wave III until 1967; the first oil crisis
and abortion of gold standard in 1972 led the Dow into a 7-year bear market
until 1974, unfolding cyclical corrective wave IV; and from 1974 low, we are
in the super bull market characterized by the fifth wave extension, the
cyclical impulsive wave V. Cyclical wave V is characterized by five conspicuous sub-waves: impulse
wave ① set off from 1974
low and ended in 1977 high; corrective wave ② was triggered by the second oil
crisis which ended in 1982 low; then we witnessed the longest bull market in
recent years, which illustrated the extended third wave characteristics in
impulse wave③ which ended in 2007; the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008
brought forward the destructive corrective wave ④. Now we are in the impulse wave ⑤ since
2008 low. We are yet to confirm the
ending of impulse wave ⑤. |
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